Comments On Silverman's Evaluation Of The Kern River Program

Authors

  • Paul J. Smith South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD, USA

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54782/jwm.v41i1.186

Abstract

 am skeptical about Silverman's (2008) approach of taking point estimates of a seeding effect (in this case, from the Kern River program) at face value, as in the interpretation of his Fig.1, and viewing a variation in those estimates with increasing length of record as an indication of a time trend in the seeding effect. A point estimate is just that: An estimate. There is a 10% chance that the "true value" of the effect does not even lay within the 90% confidence interval. I question whether small variations of the point estimate, within a confidence interval that does not substantially narrow with increasing sample size (no plot of the variation of the confidence intervals appears in Silverman 2008, but see Fig. 3 of Silverman 2007 for an example), indicate anything other than simple statistical variations of the point estimate.

Downloads

Issue

Vol. 41 No. 1 (2009)

Section

Technical Notes and Correspondence

License

Authors that submit papers for publication agree to the Journal’s copyright and publication terms. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the manuscript’s authorship and initial publication in Journal of Weather Modification. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal’s published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in the Journal of Weather Modification. Authors are permitted to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process to encourage productive exchanges and greater citation of the published article.
 
Articles are published online using restricted access for the first year. After the first year, articles are made freely available online. Immediate open access for an article may be obtained by the author paying an open access fee which is in addition to the normal page changes. Authors are expected to honor a page charge in order to support publication and distribution of the journal. After the author approves the gallery formatted version for publication, the Weather Modification Association’s Secretary will invoice the corresponding author for the page charges and payment is due within 30 days.

How to Cite

Comments On Silverman’s Evaluation Of The Kern River Program. (2009). The Journal of Weather Modification, 41(1), 161-162. https://doi.org/10.54782/jwm.v41i1.186