Maximum Hail Size Prediction

Authors

  • Evangelos Tsagalidis Hellenic Agricultural Insurance Organization Meteorological Applications Centre International Airport Makedonia, 55103Thessaloniki, GREECE
  • Kyriakos Tsitouridis Hellenic Agricultural Insurance Organization Meteorological Applications Centre International Airport Makedonia, 55103Thessaloniki, GREECE
  • Georgios Evangelidis Department of Applied Informatics University of Macedonia 156 Egnatia Street, 54006, Thessaloniki, GR
  • Dimitris Dervos Information Technology Dept. T.E.I., P.O. BOX 141, 57400 Sindos, GREECE

Abstract

We examine the possibility of building a meteorological prediction tool using data from the Greek National Hail Suppression Program. More specifically, we focus on maximum hail size prediction from operational meteorological radar and/or sounding data. Factor analysis and linear regression are applied in order to identify the optimum number of independent variables and the sequence to build the corresponding meteorological tool. A significant linear relationship is discovered for non-seeded storms relating hail size to various radar parameters, such as the Reflectivity or the group of Vertically integrated liquid density and Cloud top. A relationship for predicting hail size using radar parameters for seeded storms failed to be statistically significant.

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Scientific Papers