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Forecast Model Activities for North Dakota Cloud Modification Project

Gretchen Louise Mullendore, Mariusz Starzec

Abstract


An overview of regional forecast simulations in support of North Dakota Cloud Modification Project (NDCMP) operations is presented.   Simulations are run twice daily during the summer season by University of North Dakota.  Object-based verification of observed and simulated radar reflectivity is conducted during the off-season.  Verification of seasonal performance allows modifications to forecast simulations focused on improving operations for the North Dakota region.  NDCMP simulated forecasts are found to biased towards too many convective objects and convection that is too intense and too large.  Case studies showed that a change in microphysical scheme and adjustments to cloud droplet concentration lessened the biases.

Keywords


numerical models; forecasting; weather modification operations

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