Physical-Statistical Methods for Estimation of Hail Suppression Efficiency and Some Estimates of Suppression Results Concerning Target Areas in Bulgaria

Authors

  • Kostadin Stanchev Hydrometeorological Service Sofia, Bulgaria

Abstract

The problem of devising a reliable method for estimation of hail suppression economical efficiency is still standing before the studies in that field. Various modifications of the two basic methods, the so called Control Area (CA) and Time Series (TS) that have been used in the practical hail suppression activities till now, do not give promising results in Bulgaria. The major reasons for that are: large variability in the hail damage yearly distribution with comparatively short data series, impossibility in selection of suitable CA, the hail phenomena frequency and intensity variability during the separate years, variability of hail damage percentages on the various crops etc. Thus, for example, for a period of 15 years the yearly distribution variability of the hail losses are from 7 to 182% in relation to the mean annual losses for the territory of Bulgaria -/7/ and /8/. The modelling of the estimates that have been carried out recently (Buikow, 1977) by the use of some of those methods show relatively great errors in the hail suppression efficiency calculations.

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Technical Notes and Correspondence