A high-level atmospheric management program plan for the new millennium

The recent renewed interest in the field of weather modification has led to the conception of the following high-level national program plan designed for implementation during the new millennium. It is conceived that any atmospheric management program plan, whether it is as laid out in this paper or otherwise, must pursue a comprehensive agenda of fundamental and applied research and development efforts directed toward the goal of optimizing the technologies used to manage atmospheric processes and conditions. The Atmospheric Management Program (AMP) described in this paper would contain tasks organized under five activities: Atmospheric Modification Monitor/ Analysis Prediction System Development, Glaciogenic and Non-Glaciogenic Seeding Technology Research/ Development, Applications Research/ Development, Atmospheric Modification Professional Development/ Public Outreach, and Program Management and Support.


Introduction:
The recent renewed interest in the field of weather modification has led to the conception of the following high-level national program plan designed for implementation during the new millennium.It is conceived that any atmospheric management program plan, whether it is as laid out in this paper or otherwise, must pursue a comprehensive agenda of fundamental and applied research and development efforts directed toward the goal of optimizing the technologies used to manage atmospheric processes and conditions.The Atmospheric Management Program (AMP) described in this paper would contain tasks organized under five activities: Atmospheric Modification Monitor/ Analysis Prediction System Development, Glaciogenic and Non-Glaciogenic Seeding Technology Research/ Development, Applications Research/ Development, Atmospheric Modification Professional Development/ Public Outreach, and Program Management and Support.

Program Scope:
It is assumed that the AMP would be a permanent, national program that administers the resources and the activities for all research and development efforts directed toward optimizing the technologies used to manage atmospheric processes and conditions.It is also assumed that the resources stated below represent the amounts necessary to achieve stated deliverables, and that stated future projections are at or below their true values.
There is a clear and pressing need for additional clean water, since more than 40% of the world's population is projected to live in water stressed areas by the decade of the 2020's.Furthermore, factor in the steadily increasing property damage and human suffering caused by hazardous weather (e.g.severe weather, freezing rain), fire, as well as other environmental problems (related to toxic wastes, ozone hole, 'acid rain', biological or chemical warfare, for example), and it is also clear that an atmospheric management program, such as that being proposed, should already exist.A recent National Academy of Sciences Workshop, "assessing the current state of weather modification science as a basis for future sustainability and policy development" (Orville et al., 2000), reported that now is the time to develop a significant weather hazard reduction capability and provide sustainable water resources for our society.Silverman (2001b) notes that a water resources management program that increases the water supply cannot only be implemented in times of drought and must be implemented as an integral part of an overall management strategy of a watershed or region.He reiterates the need to develop the scientific basis of the technology in order to facilitate this result.
Modern-day weather modification technologies can help the community at large, and have been doing so for over fifty years.Recent technological and scientific advances along with contemporary socio-economic problems make a case for seeking applications &modem-day weather modification technologies that could partially or completely benefit our society.This requires that we develop the ability to; (i) better monitor and manage all atmospheric events, including hurricanes and tornadoes, airborne pollutants (including toxic, and biological and chemical terrorism agents), and even fire ignition, (it) redistribute airborne pollutants (including toxic, and biological and chemical terrorism agents) within the atmosphere such that they fall to a more "beneficial' location on earth, and (iii) minimize inadvertent weather modification (climate change caused by human activities).The change from agricultural to urban land surfaces over a modest area can introduce a climatic forcing similar in magnitude and direction as that from carbon dioxide (Pielke, 2001, personal communication).
The mission of AMP would be to develop the operational application of atmospheric modification (weather modification) technologies in order to help provide sustainable water supplies and reduced airborne hazards.This development includes the improvement of evaluation methods for operational activities as suggested by Silverman (2001a).It should concentrate this mission in four areas: (1) atmospheric water resources management, (2) weather hazard mitigation, (3) atmospheric environmental hazard mitigation, and (4) professional development and public outreach, fostering the cooperation between NOAA, other Federal governmental agencies, State governmental agencies, relevant organizations and groups, and the general public.

Program Objectives:
The objectives of this program would be to: (1) Develop a system to identify and monitor all atmospheric environmental conditions that are favorable for their beneficial modification via AMP developed technologies.(2) Develop AMP technologies to more efficiently perform (i) traditional cold and warm cloud seeding applications, and (it) weather hazard mitigation applications.(3) Develop strategies to mitigate atmospheric environmental hazards, including toxic, biological and chemical terrorism agent, or other airborne clouds.(4) Validate the computational aspects weather and atmospheric environmental hazards mitigation applications (2, ii & 3).( 5 minimize the effects from the inadvertent modification of atmospheric conditions (formerly termed inadvertent weather modification).( 6) Create a proactive professional development, public outreach activity.Atmospheric modification, commonly referred to as weather modification or, more recently, atmospheric water management, has been subdivided into advertent and inadvertent weather modification.The advertent component makes significant use of one tool, i.e., glaciogenic cloud seeding.Glaciogenic cloud seeding is operationally used to enhance the precipitation efficiency in cold cloud systems.The proper use of weather modification technology will increase the precipitation efficiency of most clouds, including thunderstorms.The precipitation efficiency of a thunderstorm, for example, has been approximated at 19% (Braham, 1952;Houghton, 1968).A common misconception is that, cloud seeding robs "Peter" to water "Paul".Properly conducted glaciogenic seeding increases the precipitation efficiency, resulting in more total rainfall, which falls over a broader area, compared to the unseeded case.Hence, cloud seeding benefits both "Peter" and "Paul".Obviously this is a good thing if you are a farmer.We get flu shots to maintain our healthiness during flu season.In the case of precipitation enhancement, the weather modification technology (cloud seeding) applied to the thunderstorm is essentially the storm's flu shot.
A strong outreach activity alleviates public misconceptions, especially a proactive one that provides interested individuals an opportunity to participate by running an appropriate 'simulator', and/or volunteering with data collection needed for model verification and development.This activity could also help concentrate the overwhelming volumes of scientific, engineering and technological knowledge gained since the 1940's, and also help counter the 'common fears' that resurface whenever there is a new cloud seeing project.
Present-day cloud seeding technology is scientifically based, and so is the recognition of when a cloud will respond to cloud seeding.The scientific community acknowledges that cloud seeding in certain well-defined situations yields a 10% increase in the amount of precipitation (compared to normal) that reaches the ground when conducted prudently, under favorable atmospheric conditions (Weather Modification Association, 2001;American Meteorological Society, 1998;World Meteorological Organization, 1992).Apparently, hydroelectric power companies can net more than enough to pay for the cloud seeding service from a mere one percent increase in the amount of rainfall (compared to normal).
There have been significant advances in our understanding of the hydrologic and energy cycles.Atmospheric modification facilitates the water and energy cycles, which are key to dealing with many present and potentially future scientific, environmental, and socioeconomic issues.Atmospheric modification technologies and methodologies for dispensing seeding materials, which are also improved, require additional development to maintain their increasing effectiveness and societal satisfaction.
These improvements, when combined with improved scientific understanding, will provide a more useful picture of when and where the atmosphere or cloud can most likely benefit from AMP improved or developed technologies.The ability to better monitor and manage atmospheric events, redistribute airborne pollutants, and to minimize inadvertent weather modification would all be developed under Objective 1.The synergistic combination of these improvements, which is a priority under Objective 1 and 2, will maximize the benefit and success of this program, and contribute to the resolution of water-related issues (especially its need).
The understanding of hazardous weather associated with storms on various scales (e.g.freezing rain, hail formation, tornadoes, hurricanes) is increasing as a result of past and ongoing research, especially research that involves the use of ground-, air-, and satellite-borne remote sensing devices (radars including Doppler, lidars, radiometers, sun photometers, others).The stateof-the-art cloud seeding technologies might be ready for application toward mitigating the effects of freezing rain events.But, the knowledge base is not large enough to support well-conceived tornado 'zapping' or hurricane 'snuffing' efforts with predictable results.It may one day support these efforts after appropriately funded and directed research has been completed.The existing cloud seeding technologies are operationally used to reduce hailstone size, and may also be used to reduce the intensity of rotational hurricane winds.Hurricane "Esther" in 1961, "Beulah" in 1963, and "Debbie" in 1969 all showed some reductions in wind speeds following cloud seeding (30% for "Debbie").However, since the reduced wind speeds were not statistical distinguishable from the range of natural variability, the effectiveness of such activities on reducing hurricane winds is not yet scientifically accepted.Nonetheless, modeling studies should dominate the initial Objectives 2ii and 3 efforts to develop the understanding of how present-day cloud seeding technologies can be applied and modified to lessen the socio-economic impacts of hazardous weather events and materials.These objectives (i.e.2ii & 3, especially) are bold, but necessary, and they are all attainable.A Center for Disease report (CDC, 2000) outlines a plan to protect the United States from the dangers of biological and chemical terrorism.The Center for Disease Control (CDC) and the US Army are developing disease surveillance systems.These CDC efforts exclude attempting to neutralize or redirect such substances while they are airborne.Biological agents may be easily redirected (from their airborne state) triggering the precipitation process to either directly involve them in this precipitation process, or to have the precipitation 'wash' them to the ground where they are significantly less threatening.Carefully planned field studies and model validation efforts are imperative and would fall under Objective 4. Initial efforts of Objective 5 should at least focus on strategies for (a) minimizing inadvertent modifications to the atmosphere, and (b) neutralizing and/or redistributing airborne toxic substances, biological and chemical terrorism agents.
The success of the Atmospheric Management Program will be measured by determining whether or not its annual tasks have been met.Surely, it is expected that there will be improved products, processes and fieldo procedures, scientific publications, conference presentations, and an effective outreach activity (Objective 6) that not only feeds the scientific and engineering communities through publications and presentations, but also provides the public with a better understanding of AMP's mission through the number of activities it sponsors or coordinates, and the access it provides.The likelihood of AMP's success is high, because the program is starting with proven technologies, many of which have had more than fifty years to mature.Thus, it will not be required to invent new tools, nor create new scientific disciplines in order to be successful.Consequently, future applications of this technology have high potentials for success, and with less risk than that realized by previous atmospheric management (or modification) programs.terrorism.(iii) Develop strategies to mitigate atmospheric environmental hazard applications (as specified above).(iv) Transfer systems and results to professional development/public outreach activity for feedback on operational usefulness, and fine-tune them based on users' input.

Program
Atmospheric Modification Professional Development, Public Outreach Objective-Promote and train for the use and understanding of every deliverable provided by AMP.This activity will also be engaged in development and presentation of educational materials, demonstrations, workshops, cationai materials, demonstrations, workshops, and colloquia that emphasize the relevant applications of AMP activities and related technologies.
Program Management and Support Obiective-Provide overall programmatic guidance, support, and tracking for the Atmospheric Management Program and participates in the definition and development of future and related technology investigations, and to administering seed grants for innovative or new applied research and applications.
Resource Requirements (anticipated): This program would require a suggested minimum of $261 million (based on FY'01 dollars) per fiscal budget year on permanent basis, with offices and some lab space, in an appropriate facility that is capable of housing 60-100 full-time equivalent (FTE).An east coast location would maximize the benefit from interacting with the various NOAA, DOD, DOE, DOI, NASA, CDC centers and laboratories.There should be 40-75 FTE for support and technical staff, 5-10 FTE for student interns, and 15-25 FTE for all program administrative staff.Table i shows the total FTEs as a function of activity.The laboratory space would be used for data analyses, experimental cloud studies to develop model-ing algorithms, ice, condensation and perhaps other substance (such as polymers, etc.) nucleation experimentation, as well as instrumentation and information technology application developments that are especially relevant to the data collected and analyzed through this program.This could include a permanent home for the former Colorado State University (CSU) cloud chamber (or its equivalent).The CSU cloud chamber has long been used for the ice nucleation activities.The lab should also house computers capable of archiving and processing large volumes (i.e., mega terabytes) of multi-disciplinary data in near realtime, instrumentation storage compartment(s), an area

Risk Identification and Management:
The primary risks to AMP are likely to be losses of key personnel, funding, required data and technology, and systems.
Loss of key personnel will be anticipated by management through open communication with gov-ernment staff, unless a contractor is hired to handle the services contract.If a contractor handles the services contract, then loss of key personnel will be anticipated through open communications with government and contract staff.The contractor's hiring capacity will be used to fill vacancies as quickly as possible.The contractor could be a particular government agency, an intergovernmental committee, or non-government organization.Here it is assumed that a non-government organization will handle the services contract since this is the current trend.
Loss of internal agency funding allocation will be mitigated by (1) identifying and taking on reimbursed research that addresses similar interests and applications, or by (2) rescoping, postponing, canceling the affected research endeavor.
O Loss of required data and systems will be anticipated in the planning process and suitable proxy data or alternative systems will be identified for quick access if needed.
for instrument calibration, and other standard laboratory ware, as appropriate.This program should include support for resources within the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Program, already dedicated to atmospheric modification activities, research aircraft at the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Institute, University of North Dakota, and WMI, mobile observational and radar facilities at the National Severe Storms lab, and the University of Oklahoma MESONET to help with various aspects of model develop-ment/validation efforts and other physical studies.This support should also extend to private research contractors, such as Woodley Associates, NAWC, Atmospherics Incorporated, other organizations, universities and government agencies related to atmospheric management, for example, those in Texas, Nevada, and Kansas, Colorado State University, USGS/US Navy/U.S.Department of Agriculture/Center Disease Control research team (Bozeman, Montana), USGS/EDC research and Applications teams for Land Use Dynamics, Applications Research, and Remote Sensing Systems.Budget (anticipated based on FY'02 dollars)."The fiscal internal funding requirements and anticipated programmatic expenditures aggregated to the activity level.

Table 1 Total Work hours represented in FTEs aggregated at the activity level a per year
Actual staffing levels will depend on Congressional-and NOAA or other governmental agency-driven research, and reimbursable income, which is not included in these estimates.Deliverables:(Initial, Anticipated Programmatic, not  annual, deliverables)Proven systems to monitor and analyze all atmospheric environmental conditions that are favorable for the beneficial modification via atmospheric management program developed technologies More efficient atmospheric modification technologies for traditional, weather hazard and atmospheric environmental hazard applications A strategy for minimizing the negative environmental effects resulting from biological and chemical terrorism agents or relevant accidents >" A strategy to minimize the likely negative effects resulting from the inadvertent modification of our atmosphere A proactive professional development, public outreach program.