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An Atmospheric Thermodynamic Model Of The Convective Storm Process Types In Mendoza (Argentina)

Raul C. Perez, Enzo Barlotta, Laura Rossi

Abstract


The DCPIM (Deep Convection Process Identification Model) index uses only surface meteorology data to forecast the convective storm class of Mendoza (Argentina). The DCPIM model did not guess right the forecast in about five percent of the studied cases. Then in order to improve the forecast model, we are adding vertical atmospheric information at the index calculation using the radiosonde on Santiago (Chile) and El Plumerillo (Mendoza). This index is calculated by correlating four surface variables: pressure PS ( mb), temperature TS (°C), dew point DPS (°C) and ground ultraviolet solar radiation index UV. Furthermore, two additional atmospheric variables at the 500 mb level were considered: temperature T500 in °C, and dew point DP500 in °C at 500 mb pressure level. The data was taken from radiosonde over Mendoza and Santiago (Chile). We collected 1551 samples, between September 2007 and April 2008. These data were statistically processed, obtaining a multivariate model for each storm convective process class (TPC) in Mendoza. From this correlation, we can observe that the class and severity of the storm convective process do not depend on the dew point at the 500 mb level (DP500), but depend on surface dew point value. This is associated with the fact that the vertical ascendant movement of the circulating air feeds the storm process carrying the water vapor from the ground to upper levels.  Moreover, the class and severity of the convective process depends on the vertical temperature difference between both levels TS and T500, and is associated with the heat flux transfer by thermal conductivity and natural convection. We conclude from the above result, that for higher values of the temperature difference and surface dew point, a more complex and severe storm convective process in Mendoza is expected. The thermodynamic calculations performed by the multivariate model were consistently compared with GOES satellite image, the C and S band radar, and its TITAN system.

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